Price fell 21.0 points over 24h
The market moved from 72% to 51% over 24h, a 21.0-point drop. The move was 14.5× the market’s own background volatility, and one 30-minute bucket accounted for 100% of it, which makes it look like a single sharp repricing rather than steady drift. Volume was $107,399 against $202,061 in resting liquidity, with 7 days to resolution and 40 price samples.
Why it moved
No dated reporting found that explains this move. It may have moved on positioning alone — the measurements above are all that is known.
Outlook
medium confidence= Priced inThe calendar points to a live Round of 16 match on 16 September, with no reporting indicating a late injury or withdrawal. WTA has Kostyuk at No. 10 after her US Open run, while Townsend arrives off a productive US Open and a Guadalajara wild card. The market’s drop looks more like a reprice toward a near-even matchup than a new event-driven edge.
- Watch
- Sep 16 Guadalajara Round of 16 start
- Sep 17 Guadalajara quarterfinals
- Sep 19 Guadalajara final
- Would flip it
- Kostyuk withdraws or is visibly limited
- Townsend continues US Open-level singles form
- Surface or conditions favor Townsend’s serve-and-net game
Model read of public reporting · 6m ago · not advice
Evidence given to the model
- Probability 72% → 51% over 24h (down 21.0 points)
- Move is 14.5× this market's own background volatility (robust σ = 0.23 pts per 30-min bucket)
- Largest single 30-min bucket accounts for 100% of the move (21.0 pts)
- 24h volume $107,399
- Resting liquidity $202,061
- Resolves in 7 days
- 40 price samples in the window